The Hunt for Wet October

September 2011 was warmer and drier than average. The temperature departure was not exceptional, with the average being 79.1 degrees, 1.0 degrees above normal. Despite the above average temperature for the month, two record lows were recorded on September 8 & 9, breaking the old record lows by 1 degree on both days.

Rainfall was exactly 1/3 of the average, 1.92" vs. an average of 5.76".

As was the case last year, October finds us in continuing drought. We have exceeded last year's rainfall total already, but we are more than 11" below normal for the year.

October is a pleasant month on St. Simons Island, with summer gradually losing its grip. Temperature averages are somewhat misleading, since this is the season of our "Lake Wobegon Days" when most of our days are above average. How can this be? The answer is that we are an island, and the ocean is warm. Cold snaps can bring us down 10 or 15 degrees below normal for a day or two, then the maritime influence reasserts itself, with long stretches of days 2, 3, 4 degrees above normal. About 70% of our days in October have above average temperatures!

Average daily rainfall decreases rapidly through October. October 1 averages 0.177" of rain. By October 31 this falls to less than half, with a 0.086" daily average. Average temperatures fall steadily through the month, with October 1 averaging 67.1 / 81.1, falling to 57.2 / 73.3 by October 31. These are the 1971-2000 averages, and new averages for the 1981-2010 period will be available shortly. I will begin using these new averages when they become available.

The technical weather discussion from the Jacksonville weather office can be read here.

St. Simons Island's official weather observations for the past 72 hours can be viewed here.

Date..............actual..............normal................departure.............notes

Oct 1...........57.4 / 74.5.......67.1 / 81.1............-8.1
Oct 2...........48.9 / 73.4.......66.7 / 80.8..........-12.6
Oct 3...........49.8 / 75.7.......66.4 / 80.6..........-10.7
Oct 4...........54.5 / 77.9.......66.1 / 80.3............-7.0
Oct 5...........59.7 / 78.1.......65.7 / 80.0............-3.9.................last day of early fall
Oct 6...........63.1 / 80.4.......65.3 / 79.7............-0.7.................first day of mid fall
Oct 7...........67.8 / 81.1.......64.9 / 79.4..........+2.3
Oct 8...........67.8 / 78.6.......64.6 / 79.1..........+1.3..................0.37" rain
Oct 9...........67.6 / 75.6.......64.2 / 78.9..........+0.0..................0.21" rain
Oct 10.........70.0 / 80.6.......63.9 / 78.6..........+4.0..................0.54" rain........Wind 25 Gust 43
Oct 11.........69.3 / 82.9.......63.5 / 78.3..........+5.2..................0.07" rain
Oct 12.........69.4 / 81.1.......63.2 / 78.1..........+4.6..................0.02" rain
Oct 13.........63.5 / 82.2.......62.9 / 77.8..........+2.5..................0.11" rain........29.67" (1004.7 mb)
Oct 14.........59.9 / 77.7.......62.5 / 77.6...........-1.2
Oct 15.........56.7 / 82.8.......62.1 / 77.4............0.0
Oct 16.........58.5 / 79.2.......61.9 / 77.1...........-0.6
Oct 17.........58.5 / 81.3.......61.7 / 76.8..........+0.6
Oct 18.........68.4 / 77.0.......61.4 / 76.6..........+3.7..................0.57" rain........29.58" (1001.5 mb)
Oct 19.........53.2 / 76.6.......61.2 / 76.4...........-3.9..................0.08" rain........29.44" (997.0 mb)
Oct 20.........46.2 / 64.4.......60.9 / 76.2..........-13.2
Oct 21.........44.4 / 67.1.......60.7 / 75.9..........-12.5
Oct 22.........45.1 / 67.3.......60.3 / 75.7..........-11.8
Oct 23.........49.1 / 71.1.......60.0 / 75.4............-7.6.................last day of mid fall
Oct 24.........54.1 / 72.7.......59.6 / 75.1............-3.9.................first day of late fall
Oct 25.........51.3 / 75.4.......59.2 / 74.9............-3.7
Oct 26.........58.3 / 75.7.......58.9 / 74.7...........+0.2
Oct 27.........63.9 / 79.2.......58.7 / 74.5...........+4.9
Oct 28.........64.6 / 77.0.......58.4 / 74.2...........+4.5..................0.01" rain
Oct 29.........48.9 / 68.9.......58.0 / 73.9............-7.0..................0.39" rain
Oct 30.........48.7 / 66.7.......57.6 / 73.6............-7.9
Oct 31.........55.4 / 68.5.......57.2 / 73.3............-3.3..................0.04" rain


8 day model forecast graphic:

Highs for 2011

40s...........4
50s.........20
60s.........36
70s.........61
80s.........109
90s.........73
100s.........1

Lows for 2011

20s..........4
30s.........15
40s.........30
50s.........62
60s.........53
70s.......131
80s...........9

Freezes.......6

On October 2nd, St. Simons Island tied its record low of 51. This record was also set in 1984.

On October 15th, St. Simons Island tied its record high of 86. This record was also set in 1972.

The noreaster of October 8th to the 12th, long heralded by models, was disappointing. For days the weather computer models showed us getting 6" of rain or more. Officially we got less than an inch, and 1.21" at my house. That was nice, but didn't put much of a dent in the drought.

The storm of Oct 18-19 did not bring heavy rains or destructive winds but did bring our second lowest pressure of the past 8 years, with a minimum of 29.44" (997.0 mb.)